Before the recent geopolitical shocks in the Middle East, UK headline inflation was beginning to look like it was stabilising around 3%—a welcome sign after years of volatility. But the war-driven energy spikes have made that stability fragile.

Beneath the headline numbers, cost pressures remain very real. According to ONS 2026:

Food inflation still elevated (~4–5%)
Wage pressures continue to bite
Energy volatility is returning in 2026
Suppliers are passing through higher costs, keeping pressure on margins

What appeared to be a stabilising environment is masking a far more challenging reality for manufacturers and boards alike.

In other words, costs aren’t spiking, they’re sticking! And that’s where many businesses are exposed.

Because if your response has been:
“Cut budgets, pause spend, push suppliers”

Then you haven’t solved the problem. It’s just delayed it. Especially in indirect spend:

Contracts renew at higher rates
“Temporary” measures become permanent
Maverick spend returns as soon as pressure eases

This is why some businesses feel like they’re winning…Until 6 months later, they’re back in the same place.

The issue isn’t inflation. It’s lack of structural control.